EL NINO WEATHER CRISIS IN EAST AFRICA 

Dear friends and partners, I am updating you about a crisis which is already in motion bigger than Covid 19 towards our region, Uganda is facing a dual climate crisis driven by El Niño conditions for the 2026–2027 season, featuring severe drought in the northeast followed by high risks of above-normal rainfall, flash floods, and landslides.

WHAT IS EL NINO
El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

WHAT IS SO STRANGE ABOUT THIS EL NINO 
The 2026–2027 El Niño event is firmly established and projected to become one of the strongest or potentially record-breaking "Super El Niño" events on record, with a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027

Record Intensity: There is an 83% chance that this event will exceed the strength of any recorded El Niño dating back to 1950.

The El Niño pattern caused an initial suppressed, dry September across parts of the country. In our region, severe dry spells and failed harvests have worsened food insecurity by more than 40%, leaving hundreds of thousands facing acute hunger and rising child malnutrition.

Above-Normal Rainfall & Floods: The Ministry of Water and Environment and the Department of Meteorological Services warned of a high probability of above-normal rainfall (25% above long-term averages) from September through December 2026, extending into early 2027. Widespread rains began picking up across parts of the country around October 9, this is happening while fuel prices is higher than it’s expected, ebora virus lockdown just ending at least everything is 60% and above normal store prices.

The number of acutely malnourished children in the region is expected to rise by 25% by October 2026 with El Niño-related dry spells significantly impacting children’s health.  

New figures from global hunger monitor, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), shows the number of children suffering from acute malnutrition has risen from 122,100 to 154,200 since a previous assessment in June, This means 32,100 additional children now require malnutrition support.  

This includes an estimated 38,800 children suffering or expected to suffer from severe acute malnutrition, the worst form of malnutrition which requires urgent medical attention.  

The figures show general food insecurity in Uganda, which is home to about 46 million people, has worsened dramatically in just a few months, with the numbers facing crisis or emergency situations rising by more than 40%.  

The number of people facing emergency food insecurity conditions has nearly tripled with households exhausting resources, skipping multiple meals, or running out of food entirely 

Drought-prone parts of Uganda and East Africa are feeling the effects of the super El Niño, with below-average rainfall contributing to lower harvests, reduced agricultural output, and localized crop failures, and plant stress.

The region has a long history of severe droughts and deadly famines driven by a hot, dry climate, civil unrest, and repeated crop failures. A devastating famine in 1980, which was triggered by a combination of extreme drought and civil unrest, caused up to  50,000 deaths, killing about 21% of the population.  

Decades later, reports from the UN's Africa Renewal publication demonstrate that the area remains highly vulnerable, with climate change, poor infrastructure, and ongoing insecurity routinely pushing hundreds of thousands back into critical food crises. 

Apart from acute hunger crisis now with much rain than usual and some parts of the country already flooding two things is highly expected 
One typhoid fever with current indications show that Uganda is a typhoid-endemic country with an estimated incidence rate of 1,000 to 1,500 cases per 100,000 population per year and over 46,000 to 56,000 officially tracked cases annually. and recent Ministry of Health reports indicate that typhoid cases have risen above national alert thresholds.

Second: Malaria fever
nationwide malaria parasite prevalence of about 21% among children aged 6 to 59 months,
Uganda ranks 3rd highest globally for total malaria cases and 8th highest for malaria deaths.
Malaria accounts for roughly 30% to 50% of outpatient visits and 15% to 20% of all hospital admissions.

Now under this new norm the most vulnerable are the children under five years of age despite all the measures in place children still contract malaria fever.

This caught us unprepared and there’s nothing in store to face this crisis even if it cost $2 to feed a child breakfast, lunch supper per day with 240 children under our care and entire ministry dependents we are very far from having enough to survive this hash condition, would you help, would you stand with the children?

We urgently need to come up with $20,000 to store up enough feeding for the next four months and $5,000 for medical emergencies.
Donate whatever God leads you to donate through our state partner charity on this link: DONATE 

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If God is calling you to help and you would like to talk to our recent visitors to our ministry physical location or those who has been working with us in your area please email us: openheartnpv@gmail.com , call, text or WhatsApp: +256753338731 

Thank you for your attention 
Pastor Hassan Mubiru
Director Open Heart Orphanage Ministry